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来源:小奈知识网
烟台海域大风探测资料可用性研究

The study on the availability of sea wind sounding data

at Yantai

中文摘要

Abstract

本文主要通过对比试验和统计分析来确定各种测站风资料的可用性、代表性,研究测站高度对风资料代表性的影响和订正使用的可能性,最终获得客观的海上风实况,在这个基础上提高大风预报准确率,更好地服务海洋经济的发展。

In this paper, the availability and representation of various station wind data were determined by contrast test and statistic analysis to study the influence of station height and the possibility of adjustment to get the objective sea wind live. On this basis, the strong wind forecast would be more accurate and serve the development of marine economy better.

首先,结合各海岛站不同的地理位置和海拔高度,对烟台海域海岛自动站大风资料的可用性进行定性分析。讨论了利用乘幂律风廓线公式来订正海拔高度对风速影响的方法。然后用统计分析历史资料的方法研究各海岛自动气象站大风资料的可用性。以国家基本气象站--长岛站的大风资料作为基准资料,统计对比了11个海岛站2008年10月到2010年7月近2年间共142个大风日最大风速,同时用2008年10月到2010年7月间11个海岛站风资料制作风向、风速玫瑰图,并进行了对比分析。分析表明,测站高度和地形对各个风向的风速有直接影响,需要选取合适的参数将探测数据订正到10米高度,通过对比分析后可以确定每个测站在各个风向探测资料的可用性。

First of all, the availability of island automatic station wind data at the sea area of Yantai was analysed qualitatively combined with geographical positions and altitudes of different island station. The method of correcting wind speed according to the wind power profile formula was discussed to determine the impact of altitude. And the availability of data was researched with the method of statistical analysis of historical

data. In this research, the maximum wind speed in a total of 142 strong wind days at 11 island stations was compared statistically during October 2008 to July 2010. At the same time, the rose diagrams of wind direction and speed were made for contrast analysis. The result showed that the station height and topography had a direct effect on wind speed in each direction. It`s necessary to select appropriate parameters to obtain the sounding data at 10m above sea level. And the availability of sounding data in all directions would be determined through contrast analysis.

其次用对比试验的方法研究各海岛自动气象站大风资料的可用性。鉴于海岛地形复杂,天气条件恶劣,在试验过程中,选择了试验地点比较理想的蓬莱八仙渡、担子岛、桑岛三个海岛自动站,从2012年11月-2013年5月,对6级以上大风及不同风速下的风向进行了7个月的连续对比试验,这三个站点都是北部临海,测站贴近海面,实测风基本能代表偏北风时海面的标准风。

Secondly, the availability of island automatic station wind data was studied by contrast test. For the complex topography and atrocious weather condition, 3 island automatic stations--Penglai Baxiandu, Danzi island, and Sang island, were selected in the test at which the test sites were ideal. During November 2012 to May 2013, the continuous contrast test had lasted for 7 months on strong wind above 6 level and wind directions under different wind speed. All of the test sites faced the sea at north and were close to the sea surface. For these reasons, the measured wind could basically represent the northerly standard wind at sea surface.

综合历史资料统计和对比试验分析,评估了这些海岛站数据可用性,以风向为标准,划分了各海岛站大风观测资料的可用性,给出了获得烟台海域海面风的规则和订正方法。在海上大风数据平台显示订正结果,用于实际监测预报业务。按照上述结论,对海上大风评定中使用的实况资料重新界定,剔除不可用风向的实况资料,这将对提高预报准确率和服务效果起到积极的推动作用,同时对调整优化、布设海岛气象站点提供了科学依据。

Based on the historical data statistics and contrast test analysis, the availability of island station data was determined and divided on the basis of wind direction. The rules and correction methods were made on sea surface wind at Yantai. The correction results could be got at the sea strong wind data platform for actual monitoring and prediction. According to the above conclusions, the live data using in sea strong wind assessment would be redefined, and the unavailable wind direction live data would be removed. The research would improve the forecast accuracy and service effectiveness. In the meantime, it provided a scientific basis on island meteorological site

adjustment, optimization and layout.

关键词:海岛自动站,大风,探测资料,对比试验,统计分析

Key words: island automatic station, strong wind, sounding data, contrast test, statistics analysis

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